Bitcoin fell below $64,000 on Tuesday as traders reduced risk before the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, while ETF outflows and leveraged liquidations added to selling pressure.
Summary
- Bitcoin dropped 2.5% and briefly traded near $63,327 during Tuesday’s session.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $11.64 million in net outflows on July 27.
- BTC lost a rising 4-hour trendline, while the daily RSI slipped to 48.13.
- Liquidity clusters near $64,500 and $62,500 could shape the next short-term move.
Bitcoin price falls below rising trendline
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price opened Tuesday near $63,706 and extended its decline toward $63,327 as traders cut exposure before the Fed decision. BTC later traded around $63,858, leaving it down roughly 2.5% during the session.
The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin broke below an ascending trendline that had supported the recovery from its late-June low near $58,000. Price attempted to move back above the trendline, but the rebound stalled below $64,000.
Bitcoin also remained under the 4-hour Supertrend resistance at $65,198. The indicator will continue to favor sellers unless BTC closes above that level and converts the broken trendline into support.
The Chaikin Money Flow reading stood at minus 0.04, showing that capital flows had turned slightly negative. While the reading does not point to extreme distribution, it shows that selling pressure continues to exceed buying demand.
Bitcoin’s daily chart presents a mixed structure. BTC traded below the 20-day moving average at $64,449 but remained slightly above the 50-day average near $63,343. That leaves the price compressed between short-term resistance and an important support level.
Fed decision drives demand for cash
The Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting on July 28 and will announce its decision at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference will follow 30 minutes later, according to the Federal Reserve’s July calendar.
Markets broadly expect policymakers to keep the federal funds rate within the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. However, futures pricing has assigned roughly a one-in-three probability to a rate increase, making the meeting less predictable than recent policy decisions.
A Reuters report said the threshold for an immediate increase remains high despite inflation concerns and hawkish comments from some policymakers. Cooler June inflation and easing geopolitical pressure support the case for holding rates steady.
A surprise increase could strengthen the US dollar and lift Treasury yields, creating another headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets. A hold may ease immediate pressure, but markets could still sell off if Warsh signals that a September increase remains likely.
Bitcoin’s decline below $64,000 therefore reflects more than technical weakness. Traders are limiting leveraged exposure before an event that could quickly change expectations for US liquidity and borrowing costs.
US Bitcoin ETF outflows add selling pressure
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $11.64 million in net outflows on July 27, marking a third consecutive session of withdrawals, according to data from SoSoValue.
BlackRock’s IBIT led the daily withdrawals with $8.82 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC lost $2.82 million. The funds still held combined net assets of about $78.71 billion, but the latest outflow showed weaker institutional demand before the Fed announcement.
Spot Ether ETFs moved in the opposite direction. The products attracted $9.23 million, led by an $11.75 million inflow into BlackRock’s ETHA. Invesco’s QETH partly offset that demand with a $2.52 million withdrawal.
The split suggests some US-listed fund investors favored Ether over Bitcoin during the session. However, one day of divergent flows is not enough to establish a lasting institutional rotation between the two assets.
Bitcoin liquidation map identifies key levels
The three-day liquidation heatmap shows the nearest large concentration of leveraged positions between roughly $64,400 and $64,600. A rebound into this area could trigger short liquidations, but it also overlaps with Bitcoin’s 20-day moving average and may act as resistance.
Additional liquidity sits near $65,800 to $66,200. Bitcoin would need to recover the 4-hour Supertrend at $65,198 before that upper zone becomes a realistic target.
Below the market, the strongest nearby liquidity concentration appears around $62,500 to $62,600. A break under the 50-day moving average at $63,343 could draw price toward that cluster. Lower support is visible around $61,800 to $62,000.
Daily momentum remains neutral rather than deeply oversold. Bitcoin’s relative strength index was 48.13, below its moving average at 53.58 and slightly under the neutral midpoint. The reading leaves room for further losses if sellers break the 50-day average.
Analyst sees $68,000 recovery in August
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe maintained a bullish near-term outlook despite Bitcoin’s latest pullback.
“I think we’ll target $68,000 in early August again, and are likely going to break out of that fairly soon to $75,000+.”
For that scenario to strengthen, Bitcoin must first reclaim the $64,450 to $65,200 resistance region. A move above $66,000 would then expose the analyst’s $68,000 target.
On-chain analyst Ardi noted that Bitcoin’s market-value-to-realized-value ratio stood at 1.21. The level remains well above the 0.69 and 0.75 readings associated with the 2018 and 2022 bear-market lows, respectively.
That comparison suggests Bitcoin has not reached the same degree of market-wide capitulation seen at previous cycle bottoms. For US investors, Wednesday’s Fed statement and Warsh’s guidance remain the immediate catalysts: a hawkish surprise could expose $62,500, while a less restrictive message may help BTC recover $65,200.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
