Key Takeaways:
- Santiment reports that active XRP Ledger wallets saw average returns plummet to minus 41% over the past year.
- The XRP MVRV ratio hit its lowest since the 2022 FTX crash, signaling a deep industry undervaluation zone.
- Analysts eye a potential relief rally for XRP to reclaim its $2 threshold if historical patterns hold.
Historical MVRV Lows Point to a Major Reversal
According to the latest data from market intelligence firm Santiment, the average XRP investor is currently weathering a significant storm. Wallets active on the XRP Ledger over the past year are seeing average returns plummet to minus 41%. This decline has pushed the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio into an undervaluation zone, suggesting that most holders are currently in the red.
The data shows this MVRV represents the most severe divergence between market value and realized value since the FTX collapse in November 2022. Santiment asserts that investors with a long-term outlook may view this as encouraging; following the 2022 capitulation event, XRP staged a 63% rally within just 4.5 months. If historical patterns hold, the digital asset could rally and potentially reclaim the psychological $2 threshold, which it last held in January.
Despite a bullish start to 2026, XRP has faced a steady retracement, closing the first quarter down more than 25% overall. However, after hitting a year-to-date low of $1.22 in early February, XRP has consistently defended the $1.30 mark, establishing it as a primary line of defense for bulls.
Still, on-chain indicators present a more cautious outlook. For example, the exchange net position change has seen a sharp decline, sliding from 117 million XRP in late March to 57 million XRP by April 5. This suggests a temporary exhaustion of buyer demand on centralized exchanges.
In a post on X, regarding the MVRV decline, Santiment doubled down on the narrative that extreme negative MVRV levels often precede major trend reversals.
“Because cryptocurrencies are zero-sum trading games, significantly negative average returns imply that there is much lower risk than average in buying or adding to positions,” Santiment noted.
The firm highlights that when the market enters “blood in the streets” territory, the risk of further downside is often statistically lower than the potential for a relief rally, as the most shaky hands have already capitulated.
While the immediate trend appears bearish due to fading exchange demand, the underlying on-chain data suggests XRP is deeply oversold. For contrarian investors, the combination of a minus 41% average loss and a multiyear low MVRV provides a compelling buy-the-capitulation thesis.
